Drs. Maarten Lörtzer
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The Centre for Global Socio-Economic Change (CFGSEC) generates new insights into the socio-economic development of countries and regions for governments, organisations and companies. The CFGSEC model uses cross-boundary data series and combines these in a holistic way to produce surprising information on the relationship between economic growth, social development and ecological footprints. Not just for individual countries and regions, but also for clusters of countries like the EU. And, most importantly, the Centre’s approach generates a new capability of looking into the future (‘closed-loop forecasting’).
The power of the model lies in being able to recognise and interpret the interconnections between significant economic, ecological and social components using big data technology. This enables the socio-economic behaviour of communities to become visible. These comprehensive relationships are not, or are insufficiently, apparent in current analyses. They prove, however, to be crucial in the early identification of changes (‘socio-economic imaging’). The result allows policy measures to be taken in good time and many so-called ‘black swans’ (unanticipated major events) to be avoided.
The model, developed under the supervision of the physicist Professor Guus Berkhout, PhD, and taken further and validated with economists and sociologists of TNO, was presented today to a large interested audience at a gathering in The Hague. TNO manages the Centre at arm’s length, providing knowledge and detaching personnel. Professor Berkhout is responsible for the day-to-day management.
Big data sensing and big data analysis pushes the limits of science and policy making. Data-poor models and segmented answers are not sufficient to solve today’s major global issues. Economic growth, social development and ecological impact are closely interrelated and must be considered as a whole. Analysis must combine a wide diversity of cross-boundary data.
TNO expects this holistic and fact-based approach of ‘total sustainability’ to set off a revolution in the way that coherent policy is developed and strategic decisions are taken by governments, international organisations and companies. The CFGSEC will publish its analyses and forecasts each year in a “World Prosperity Outlook”. Parties that become affiliated to the CFGSEC will also gain detailed insight into the ‘connected’ big data technology of the new Centre and may even request the development of more specific information to support their innovation policy and risk inventory procedure.
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