A fossil-free 2050 is technically achievable

Fact-based insight for policymakers and industry

The European Climate Law requires climate neutrality by 2050, a goal that is legally binding for the Netherlands. A fully fossil-free energy system and industry go beyond this legal obligation and represent an aspirational target that demands additional analysis.

The greatest challenge lies within industry, which is responsible for almost half of national energy consumption and around 30% of emissions. Fossil-free does not only mean switching to renewable energy; it also requires replacing fossil feedstocks, adapting infrastructure and bearing significant costs.

TNO examined the shift from climate-neutral to fossil-free by comparing system-wide effects, differences in total system costs and key challenges. Three scenarios were modelled using the OPERA framework: a climate-neutral reference pathway and two fossil-free variants in which both fossil energy carriers and fossil feedstocks are fully phased out.

The results represent scenario explorations (not predictions) within a system-cost optimisation context, based on assumptions regarding technology deployment, imports and energy demand, explains Ayla Uslu, Senior Scientist Energy Transition at TNO.

System-wide key findings on the pathway towards a fossil-free energy system

The points below summarise the main system effects of moving from a climate-neutral to a fully fossil-free energy system and industry in 2050:

• Total system costs are 6–10% higher than in a climate-neutral scenario, amounting to around €7.7–€12.8 billion annually in 2050 (national cost perspective).
• The supply mix requires full utilisation of 100% of the technically feasible offshore wind potential, substantial expansion of solar energy and additional nuclear capacity.
• Strategic imports of renewable fuels and intermediate energy carriers remain essential to balance supply and demand.
• Industry faces the largest investment challenge, with accelerated electrification of processes, production and integration of renewable hydrogen, and the shift to alternative, non-fossil feedstocks.
• Electricity demand quadruples by 2050 compared to 2024 in a climate-neutral scenario, and increases by a further 20–31% in a fossil-free variant.

Chemicals sector as the biggest challenge and key task

Within industry, the chemical sector represents the most significant challenge due to its strong dependence on fossil-based feedstocks (including naphtha and aromatics). Replacing these with biobased, synthetic and circular alternatives requires rapid commercialisation and large-scale deployment of technologies at varying maturity levels.

Promising pathways such as methanol-to-olefins and pyrolysis oil must be accelerated from pilot to industrial scale. For transport fuels (including aviation and maritime), new refining capacity and robust international supply chains will be needed for biobased and synthetic kerosene and methanol.