Making sustainability strategies robust and resilient in an uncertain world

The four scenarios form a framework based on previous TNO research into sustainability strategies that combine social and technological innovation. Using this, organisations can assess their own strategy for transformative capacity and robustness in today’s uncertain geopolitical climate.

To put this approach into practice, TNO organised the first workshops together with ABN AMRO and network operator Alliander. These sessions demonstrated the value of the framework: participants discovered not only where their strategy already includes transformative elements, but also where blind spots remain. 'We are active in more areas than we thought,' was a common reaction.

Holding up a mirror

Teams that thought they were being cautious discovered that their plans were sometimes already quite transformative. 'Are we really active in the field of post-growth?' was one of the reactions during a workshop. At the same time, the framework exposed gaps: empty spaces revealed that certain scenarios were not yet sufficiently considered.

'It really holds up a mirror,' says Sander Oosterloo of Alliander. 'The workshop makes you critically examine your own role in the sustainability transition.'

Many organisations, including government bodies, will recognise this challenge. You want to look ahead and make your strategy future-proof. But as soon as you move beyond familiar market logic, things become complex. How can we work towards a sustainable future? Should we focus on technological innovation or behavioural change? On market forces or government intervention? When exploring innovative societal futures, discussions often stall before you can even examine what different futures might mean for your organisation in practice.

From debate to strategic directions

TNO studied the international debate on alternative economic concepts such as Green Growth, Doughnut Economy, Degrowth and Broad Prosperity. 'In the policy impact chains of all these concepts, essential links are missing,' says Stephan. 'The logical connection between what you propose and what you actually achieve is often absent.'

Instead of choosing one direction, TNO translated these ideas into four core scenarios. 'Not ideological positions, but strategic directions that help organisations test and strengthen their sustainability strategy,' explains Anouk.

Anouk. 'We show what each scenario entails and let them map their strategy against it. This creates a clear picture of where they stand and what steps are possible, without us making the choice for them.'

Plotting, exploring, discovering

The method is simple yet powerful. Together with the organisation, we prepare the session. Participants start by defining their current situation: where are we now and what do we want to achieve? They then learn about the four scenarios and plot their current strategy and initiatives against them. This reveals which scenarios are already addressed, where overlaps exist and which quadrants remain empty.

A tool for concrete discussions

Sander Oosterloo (Alliander): 'You plot your own strategy on the scenarios and then think further about what that could mean. It makes the discussion very concrete and structured.' The special effect: discussions that normally polarise become manageable. 'The quadrants make the discussion concrete but also neutralise it somewhat. You can discuss everything without it becoming ideological.'

For Alliander, the method was a good fit. 'TNO succeeded in helping us look at our challenge in a new way using accessible tools.' After plotting comes a deep dive: what do these different futures mean in practice, what opportunities and threats exist? The session ends with action points for the organisation and participants.

Sonny Duijn, who coordinates biodiversity activities at ABN AMRO and previously advised on TNO’s research, says the workshop was a logical step. 'Making the knowledge concrete is very helpful.'

'We gained several interesting insights, including how our activities align with possible future scenarios,' he adds.

Robust or resilient?

Another part of the workshop that resonated at ABN AMRO was the distinction between a robust and a resilient strategy. A robust strategy works in the long term across multiple scenarios. A resilient strategy can be quickly adapted if the future turns out differently. 'That was a very interesting concept to reflect on,' says Sonny.

Participants also brainstormed what TNO’s scenarios could mean for business models and for ABN AMRO. Regardless of the best answers, discussing these questions is already valuable. 'It provides tools and inspiration to incorporate these perspectives into the future,' says Sonny.

More than just an afternoon

The workshop offers organisations a way to review their sustainability strategy and ideas for change. To discover where your strategy stands, which scenarios you already address and where opportunities lie that you haven’t yet seen. To test your strategy for robustness across different possible futures and resilience to potential shocks.

'It’s a lot to process in an afternoon,' says Sonny. 'But you should see this as planting a seed and as a way to reflect on your activities.'

Sander adds: 'The method encourages thinking beyond usual frameworks—and really testing whether your strategy can withstand different scenarios.'

Workshops for strategic thinkers and policymakers

Is this workshop only for companies like ABN AMRO or Alliander? 'We definitely see potential for governments and policymakers too,' says Stephan. This could be at national level, provinces or municipalities. 'More and more organisations struggle with the same question: how do you look beyond familiar paths in sustainability and avoid tunnel vision, without getting stuck in ideological debates and losing sight of where you stand?'

For TNO, the workshops with Alliander and ABN AMRO were an opportunity to evaluate the concept in practice. 'We have now developed and tested a strong concept with two very different organisations. With their feedback, we are refining the process so we can help other companies and policymakers strengthen their sustainability strategies.'

Interested?

Ready to take real steps and get started? Sign up for a workshop for a sharp analysis of your sustainability strategy or policy plans. Contact Stephan Slingerland or Anouk Geenen today and discover how we can help your organisation move forward.