From grid congestion to resilience: flexibility accelerates the mobility transition

Results: accelerating roll‑out, limiting costs

Using scenario and sensitivity analyses (2030–2050), TNO examined how much dispatchable capacity and which flexibility options are needed to ensure reliable, affordable and climate‑neutral electricity, including under weather extremes and grid congestion. The results are published in Demand and supply of dispatchable generation in the power system of the Netherlands, 2030–2050.

This is relevant for grid operators, municipalities, charge‑point operators and policymakers, because it shows concretely how flexibility (demand response, storage, import/export) and the deployment of dispatchable assets (hydrogen‑ready capacity, biomass ± CCS, WtE, SMRs) can accelerate the roll‑out of public charging infrastructure, limit costs, and increase system resilience. Especially in neighbourhoods where residents depend on public charging.

Dispatchable capacity & flexibility

Earlier TNO research (for MRA‑E) shows that grid congestion can delay the roll‑out of public charging infrastructure, with direct economic effects (higher charging costs, lower productivity) and reduced system resilience.

Residents without a driveway or private connection are disproportionately affected, putting broad participation in electric driving, and a robust, efficient mobility chain, under pressure.

Grid congestion increases inequality in access to charging

In 2024, an estimated ~52% of EV drivers charge at home (RVO). To meet targets, the share of public charging will need to grow. If public charge points cannot be connected in time due to limited grid capacity, the risk of waiting times, higher charging costs such as rapid charging, and unequal access increases, precisely for the households most dependent on public infrastructure.

Distributive justice under pressure

Grid congestion concerns not only technology and planning, but also (distributive) justice: who can participate in the mobility transition, under what conditions and costs?

Decisions about allocating transport capacity and prioritising connections directly affect municipalities, grid operators, operators, and residents of flats and neighbourhoods without private charging options.

Integrated insight and action perspective

TNO combines system knowledge of the electricity grid and markets with socio‑economic insights to support policy and implementation. Concretely, we help with:

• Access and equity analyses: identifying differences between groups and quantifying policy options.

• Technical and operational advice: mapping loading and flexibility on the low‑voltage grid and defining scenarios for smart control.

• Roadmaps for public charging infrastructure: siting, phasing and cooperation with grid operators under grid‑congestion conditions.

Policy and implementation

Do you work for a municipality, grid operator, charge‑point operator or policy organisation, and want to ensure everyone can participate in electric driving, including where the grid is tight?

Contact TNO for a brief exploration of your region or portfolio. Together, we develop practical, inclusive solutions that relieve the grid and accelerate the mobility transition.