Strategic Defence & Security Analysis

Thema:
Safe society

In the fast-paced and dynamic landscape of global and national security, the need for defence and security organisations (D&V) to evolve and adapt is more urgent than ever. Rapid technological advancements, shifts in societal and geopolitical dynamics, and the emergence of new challenges and threats mean that defence and security strategies are constantly changing. To effectively mitigate risks, safeguard national interests, and ensure societal safety and well-being, D&V organisations must embrace change and transformation.

The Strategic Defence & Security Analysis (SDSA) department supports decision-makers at Defence, the Ministry of Justice & Security, and implementing organisations such as the Police and Public Prosecution Service in realising this transformation. They do this by analysing complex problems, researching trends, and developing new policy options and strategies. This supports policymakers and implementers in strategy and planning for the direction and organisation of a future-proof D&V organisation.

The SDSA team consists of scientists and advisors with diverse disciplinary backgrounds, such as public administration and business administration, international relations, security studies, anthropology, organisational studies, econometrics, and simulation studies. Everyone has or is gaining broad experience in projects for various D&V organisations and therefore understands the world of these organisations, as well as the implications of new developments for the functioning and operations of D&V organisations.

The SDSA department has four areas of expertise:

Foresight & Scenarios

Central to this area of expertise is the structured and substantiated look into the future, enabling clients to better anticipate that future and thus supporting strategic decision-making. On the one hand, this anticipation can foresee and seize opportunities, while on the other hand, organisations can better prepare for new threats. We call this the anticipation function: inventorying future developments and interpreting and analysing this information.

System Analysis

System analysis focuses on gaining insight into complex societal and organisational problems, their underlying principles, and emerging processes. Such systems are characterised by dynamic behaviour, a large number of actors exhibiting emergent behaviour, feedback mechanisms, long-term effects, delays, and non-linearity. The SDSA department uses various modelling techniques to gain shared insight into the structure and behaviour of complex systems. The resulting models provide a shared problem perspective, insight into the effectiveness of interventions, and contribute to the design of courses of action for various stakeholders and on different timescales.

Organisation & System Change

This area of expertise focuses on increasing the (strategic) effectiveness and the capacity for change and innovation of defence and national security organisations that must continue to operate effectively in a highly complex, dynamic world. Quantitative and qualitative analysis methods are used to gain insight into the functioning, structure, and culture of security organisations and the role of leadership and (strategic) decision-making. These methods help to make continuous and unpredictable interactions between various organisational factors visible and understandable in practice, specifically around innovation and change issues. With an understanding of challenges and leverage points, organisations in the security domain are supported in developing action perspectives for an effective, adaptive, and innovative organisation. The subsequent transition process is supported with various methods and tools to gain insight into patterns and dynamics that play a role in the transition process, as well as (systemic) interventions to sustainably strengthen the transition in thinking and acting of organisations.

Collaborative Analysis & Decision Process Support

This area of expertise aims to support group decision-making processes as effectively as possible through process design and facilitation of execution. Methods are used to promote the transparency and objectivity of this decision-making, resulting in a sound and responsible outcome.

The knowledge is applied to issues with a high number of stakeholders, multi-criteria problems, and decision-making with a lot of unavoidable uncertainty.

The focus is roughly on three core methods: wargaming, roadmapping, and multi-criteria analysis (hereafter MCA). Knowledge and skills in group facilitation, (creative) brainstorming techniques, expert judgment elicitation and analysis, group model building, and Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis (within the context of MCA) are used to support this.