Circular scenario models for insight into the circular value chain of materials
The Netherlands, like the rest of Europe, aims to achieve a 100% circular economy by 2050. This is a significant challenge, as the entire system must be adapted alongside the energy transition. To understand what is required for this circular transition, TNO is developing circular models. These models provide governments and businesses with independent insights into circular strategies and the system impact of the value chain.
Future scenarios for technology and policy
Through these models, we map out future scenarios for technology and policy. Our focus is on the broad value chain of materials, as well as specific materials such as the plastics value chain.
By gathering and processing large volumes of data, knowledge, and expertise – exclusively available within TNO – we can analyse system scenarios. This enables governments and large industries to make informed decisions about the transition to a circular economy.
We have developed two circular models for this purpose:
CITS Model: insight into the circular value chain of materials
One example of such a model is the ‘Circular Industrial Transformation System’ (CITS). The CITS model provides a clear overview and insight into how materials and products move through the production chain. Additionally, CITS calculates the impact of all these steps in the production chain, based on the Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) method.
It generates technology and policy scenarios using data related to the circular economy, analyses, and forecasts. This helps governments and businesses understand the long-term impact of their decisions and make sustainable choices.
CITS supports the development of strategies that balance economic and environmental objectives. The model also enables the analysis of the effects of various energy and recycling options and identifies synergies between climate goals and the circular economy.
In 2023 and 2024, TNO conducted a product group analysis for the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency for the packaging product group. The goal of this analysis was to develop a circular future scenario .
Our results indicate that the demand for consumer packaging could increase by 17% between 2022 and 2050 if consumption patterns do not change. Currently, 55% of packaging material is not processed, and only a small proportion is reused as packaging.
An optimal circular scenario could reduce greenhouse gas emissions from packaging by 62% and decrease material use by 67%. Significant results in this scenario are achieved by avoiding packaging (refuse) and reducing the material used in packaging (reduce).
Additionally, new recycling technologies are crucial in these scenarios. A major challenge of a circular packaging scenario, is the high safety requirements for packaging. Chemical recycling may play a role here, as it can remove contaminants. However, many chemical recycling technologies come with a higher CO2 impact.
TNO's PRISM model for insight into the plastics value chain
In addition to the CITS model, TNO has developed a specialised model that focuses on plastics recycling, known as the Plastic Recycling Impact Scenario Model (PRISM). This model incorporates knowledge of all currently known recycling technologies, including innovative methods such as thermochemical recycling or dissolution. PRISM assists organisations in developing strategies for efficient and circular plastic design and recycling. We achieve this by modelling and optimising current and future plastic recycling routes.
The figure shows a flow chart (a Sankey diagram) that represents how plastics can "flow" through our society in a circular economy in 2050, from raw material to end of life. Each color of the flow reflects a different process, and the thickness of the flow equals the size of the stream. The flow chart starts with raw material, which is either fossil (such as oil), recyclate (already recycled plastic) or bio-based (from agricultural products). The next column presents the type of polymers made from this. The third column shows the different product groups made from these polymers, such as packaging or electronics. Column four shows the flow of different methods of plastic waste collection and what the optimal recycling option is in 2050. Column five then shows how much new raw material we can produce from plastics by applying recycling.
PRISM demonstrates that it is technologically feasible to achieve up to approximately 87% efficiency in recycling, assuming we can manage to prevent all losses. This will require significant technological advancements in sorting and recycling, as well as other factors such as consistent policies, consumer acceptance, and a sense of responsibility across the entire value chain.
Download the whitepaper 'Don't waste it!'
Don't waste it! Solving the dark side of today's plastics.
Does your company produce or process plastics? Ensure you are well-prepared for the future with new business opportunities!
Contact us
-
Toon van Harmelen
Functie:Project managerWith more than 30 years of experience in international energy and environmental policy, Toon van Harmelen is highly regarded for his work and vision in the field of industrial research. In his capacity at TNO, Toon concerns himself with identifying and evaluating sustainable technological solutions for the chemical industry, e.g. biobased economy, carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS), and electrification of chemical production. Of particular interest to Toon is his work on modelling a circular plastics system that incorporates mass flow analysis, dynamic stock modelling, cost optimisation and system impact assessment.
-
Standplaats:Utrecht
-
Email:Email Toon
-
-
Tim Bulters
Functie:Business Developer Circular PlasticsTim has always had a drive to contribute to a more sustainable world. During his career, Tim has specialised in the Circular Economy. His goal is to create a fair and sustainable economy with enough materials for everyone. Since starting as Business Developer at TNO, Tim's focus has been on the plastics sector. His area of expertise is Microplastics and Circular Plastics Modelling.
-
Standplaats:Utrecht
-
Telefoon:+31 6 27 10 83 84
-
Email:Email Tim
-
LinkedIn:Tim on LinkedIn
-
Get inspired
Circular plastics by 2050: what will it take?
Circular strategies: The key to fossil-free packaging by 2050
Meet the Expert: Environmental Impact of Microplastics
New method also considers environmental impact of microplastics
Biopolymer design by machine learning
